Don't Panic: ISIS, Terror and Today's Middle East, by Gwynne Dyer
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Don't Panic: ISIS, Terror and Today's Middle East, by Gwynne Dyer
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It took a quarter-century of bad strategy, including more than a dozen years of Western air attacks and invasions in the Middle East, to bring the so-called "Islamic State" into existence. Can we somehow manage to avoid the well-trodden path of overreacting to the provocations of Islamist extremists? With the rise of ISIS, a new style of terrorism that publicly gloats over acts of extreme cruelty has reawakened the fears of the global audience. But in Don't Panic, Gwynne Dyer argues that the advent of "Islamic State" and its clones does not substantially raise the risk of major terrorist attacks in Western countries. It does, however, pose a grave threat to the Arab countries of the Middle East. In Don't Panic, Dyer first explains why the Middle East has become the global capital of terrorism. He then examines how terrorist organisations in the Arab world have evolved over time, with particular emphasis on the events of the past fifteen years and the current situation in Syria and Iraq. And in the end Dyer departs from his long-standing position that foreign interventions always make matters worse to argue that a little military intervention of the right kind may avert a genocide in Syria. "When my information changes, I alter my conclusions," said John Maynard Keynes. "What do you do, sir?"
Don't Panic: ISIS, Terror and Today's Middle East, by Gwynne Dyer- Amazon Sales Rank: #1315014 in Books
- Published on: 2015-10-13
- Released on: 2015-10-13
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.00" h x .72" w x 5.16" l, .46 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 256 pages
About the Author GWYNNE DYER has served in the Canadian, British and American navies. He holds a Ph.D. in Middle Eastern history from the University of London, has taught at Sandhurst and served on the Board of Governors of Canada's Royal Military College. Dyer writes a syndicated column that appears in more than 175 newspapers around the world.
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7 of 7 people found the following review helpful. A clear-headed view of the Middle East and terrorism By AF I discovered Gwynne Dyer a couple of years ago, and by now have read a few of his books. With him being Canadian, his perspective on US foreign policies and the world at large are a bit different from what we often find in the US - especially from the mainstream media.Personally, I find his perspective refreshing. As with so many things these days, your perception will likely be influenced by your personal politics. While many would likely simply label Dyer as "liberal" I think that misses the point entirely. I don't sense any specific political agenda in his writing, other than trying to objectively present facts. "Facts" can be a hard thing to come by, and certainly can be manipulated and/or misrepresented. But Dyer has a gift, in my opinion, for distilling complex issues to the essence of what matters and presenting them in a very clear, readable, absorbable way. He's not afraid to explain things so that the whole picture is presented (unlike Chomsky, who makes countless oblique references to events and sources and leaves it to the reader to fill in these innumerable blanks on their own). This can include bits of relevant history, political maneuvers and machinations, events, etc. When dealing with a topic this hopelessly complex I don't mind a little hand holding. However, if all you want to hear is "America is great and Muslims are terrorists" this may not be the book for you. To elaborate on that a little, Dyer does not engage in empty America-bashing. He does, however, give specific examples and histories of when and how our foreign policies (and those of our allies) have led us to where we are today. He also goes to great pains to demystify Islam to some degree, and present the tremendous variety and disparity of the various branches in the Muslim world. Getting past this homogenized, oversimplified view of the Muslim world is important, as far too often our media presents the Middle East as though everyone living there is an Arab and everyone living there thinks and feels the exact same way. His dissection of terrorism, its roots and the strategies involved does much to cut through the absurd "they hate our values" rhetoric we often hear.This book is an invaluable resource and relevant to various frustrating, upsetting topics which are in the news on a daily basis. The news and perspectives we get in the US are more often than not colored by some measure of jingoism, American Exceptionalism, political considerations and a cynical dismissal of the intelligence of the American public. If you want to get a view of these topics without the red, white & blue colored glasses, this book is an excellent place to start. You may not (and of course don't have to) agree with everything Dyer says, but finding this perspective beyond what is spoon-fed to us by the mainstream media (who all have their own agendas) has been informative and refreshing to me. It's a good read that opened my mind.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful. Mostly Harmless? By L. King Canadian journalist Gwynne Dyer provides a well done sweeping analysis of the progression from Al Queda to the Islamic State along with a breakdown on the major players, mistakes and options going forward. The approach is really a journalistic summary well suited for people are concerned about the future of American involvement in the region. As part of the downside – the supporting footnotes are sparse and there are no maps. Both are important to support a case.Essentially Al-Queda begat ISIS through bin Ladin's provision of $200,000 seed money to the Jordanian born terrorist al-Zarqari. After al-Zarqawi 's demise in 2006 the group he ran renamed itself from al-Tawhid wal-Jihad to Islamic State of Iraq which sounded more Iraqi, even though it was now run by Ayyub al Masri – a former Egyptian colonel who named Abu Omar al Baghdadi as spiritual leader. Once ISIS controlled a reasonably large swath of territory Baghdadi declared the caliphate (like Highlander, there can be only one) and renamed ISIS Daesh or Islamic State (IS). The creates a dilemma for other Islamic factions – either recognize the caliphate or be accused of apostasy. Al Queda's own 5 point strategy was formulated by co-founder Saif al Adel: Attack the far enemy (the US) to induce them to come near. These attacks would cause civilian casualties locally which would be used to recruit more jihadists to the Islamic "cause". Create loosely connected franchises to al-Queda in other countries and support them with advice and encouragement, but not command and control. The West's top heavy response to asymmetric warfare will cause their economies to collapse, forcing withdrawal leaving the Islamic resistance movements in control. This is what happened to the Soviet Union with their ill advised invasion of Afghanistan so it should work a second time. The end result should be a world-wide caliphate by 2020.Where al-Queda and the ISIS have differed is that the latter has a more active hatred of Shias whom they view as heretics, and it is against Shias that they have prioritized their attacks, citing Saladin who said “I will not fight the Crusaders while my back is exposed to the Shia.” And while Dyer characterizes al-Queda as “pragmatic and flexible” (pp4), the evidence is that description is applicable to IS as it has been able to secure territory, weapons and financing on a far greater scale than al-Queda. Both have been effective in terror, IS has been far more “pragmatic” in it destruction of human life and and in in establishing a form of brutal governance whereas al-Queda spends more time theorizing. Dyer also considers that most of the damage has already been done. Mixed Shia/Sunni neighbourhoods have already mostly disappeared due to infighting and people who have needed to flee have fled, Baghdad's population of 6 million is too large for an organization the size of IS to conquer.I thought Dyer was doing very well... until it came to his final recommendation – bite the bullet and back Assad as the least worst alternative. Loan him money for food and arms and then sell them to him. IMV that sucks for many reasons, but principally because of what Syrian lawyer and activist Hassan al Bunni once said which is that in the Arab Middle East the Regime's strategy is to argue that as bad as they are, the alternative is far worse – but that's only true because this has been their strategy from day one – its far easier to suppress moderates and to tolerate the extremists – moderates don't shoot back. Dyer is probably right – one should avoid giving either IS or al-Queda what they want and the West's preoccupation with creating a 3rd force using democratic moderates is pure fantasy. He may also be wrong – Assad is unlikely to recover all of Syria, may not want to, may set his sights on Lebanon and certainly won't go after IS in Iraq.A very good read for a current backgrounder but ephemeral - it will date itself quickly, and there is not enough there on the impact of Iran and Russia. His final conclusion while interesting I find difficult to endorse. 4* for today, but 3* in 2017.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful. Information is armament By Leanne Jones Introduction to “Don’t Panic” gives a clear line-up of main players of terrorist groups in the Middle East, which groups live where, prompting the printing out of group names to tack on a world map. The mish mash of misunderstanding begins to clear. The author tells the reader that actual threat is small unless you happened to live in the wrong places. Armed with Dyers clear program, alliances become transparent. Example (Wahhabi leaders alignment to the Saudi ruling house.) The reader is hooked!
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